Posted on 10/04/2015 in category Paper

BIR World Mirror on Recovered Paper / Quarterly Report - April 2015

Ranjit Baxi, J&H Sales International Ltd

International Markets with a focus on Asia

Economic forecasts for 2015 are for slower growth of the Chinese economy, resulting in weakening demand for recyclables and raw materials. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is also projected to dip below the 50 mark, reflecting a contraction of the manufacturing sector.

China’s growth rate for 2015 is likely to be around 7%, which would be the lowest since the year 2000. However, the good news is that the Chinese government is working on building a balanced, mature economic model following a period of robust, double-digit growth which may help to sustain current demand levels.

Eurozone economies are projected to gather pace in 2015 after an annualised growth rate of 1.2% in 2014. Decreasing rates of unemployment as well as increasing consumer confidence and spending are providing the foundation for a stronger recovery during the year. Falling oil prices and a weakening Euro are helping domestic economies and promoting exports. By the second half of 2015, weakening oil prices will have less influence and so the challenge for the Eurozone economies will be to sustain the growth achieved during the first half of this year.

We have seen sea freights falling during the first quarter, supported by weakening oil prices and increased capacities through the introduction of larger vessels. However, ancillary charges - such as the low sulphur surcharge - are being levied by the lines and these are neutralising in part the lower sea freight rates. (...)

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