In Northern Europe, autumn has really set in. And while the leaves are falling from the trees, recycled steel dealers have experienced a sharp decrease in inflows because of generally lower activity levels. Some supplier segments are speaking in terms of a decline of up to 30% compared to last year.
There is a close connection between inflation, interest rates and activity levels, and thus the production of recycled steel. When European interest rates are rising sharply, as is the case now, this dampens industry’s desire to invest and consumers’ appetite to spend on cars and other major goods. Therefore, the logic is that falling interest rates are required before recycled steel supply returns to normal levels. Hopefully, this will be during 2024.
The Turkish market for recycled steel (TSI) is largely a price-setter for HMS in Northern Europe. Since mid-August, prices have been relatively stable and have ranged between US$ 370 and 377 per tonne C&F Turkey.
Rising prices for natural gas have recently reduced the downward pressure, although the low supply of recycled steel also limits how far prices can decrease.
India is very active in the market for shredded in containers and the bulk market is also beginning to move. However, prices for shredded have showed a downward trend of late. In Europe, demand for recycled steel is slowly returning.
Freight rates for containers to India and Pakistan remain at a relatively low level. Bulk rates to Turkey have increased by around 30% over the past month.