If tariffs are the fire, demand is the oxygen

It gives me great pleasure to welcome you to this Valencia Convention edition of the BIR Ferrous Division’s World Mirror publication.

The year began with a sense of optimism for the recycled metals industry. However, that initial promise has been tempered by the escalation of a global tariff war, sparked by the Trump administration’s imposition of broad import tariffs. These measures have since triggered retaliatory tariffs in several major steel-producing nations, setting off a chain reaction across global markets.

If tariffs are the fire, then demand is the oxygen. In today’s volatile trade environment, protectionist policies are fuelling uncertainty; however, it is the underlying demand - or the lack of it - that ultimately determines whether the flames of market disruption will spread or be contained.

As these trade tensions flare, the recycled ferrous metals market finds itself navigating unpredictable terrain. While tariffs have disrupted traditional trade flows and added cost pressures, the real driver behind price movements remains demand - particularly from key consuming countries and regions such as Turkey, India, South East Asia and the EU. For more detail, please read our in-depth Mirror reports.

So far, demand has shown resilience in certain pockets, with some countries increasing domestic consumption or redirecting imports to alternative suppliers. However, others have faced significant slowdowns, as manufacturing output falters and steel production levels adjust in response to both political uncertainty and shifting market fundamentals.

With tariffs igniting volatility, and demand feeding or starving that volatility, it has made it increasingly difficult for industry participants to plan, invest and trade with confidence. Metal processors, traders and steel mills alike are adapting rapidly, seeking out new markets, reassessing supply chains and evaluating risks that were once considered negligible.

As we gather for the BIR’s latest Convention in Valencia, collaboration and shared insight are more important than ever. The Ferrous Division remains committed to providing clarity in a time of confusion, opportunity in a time of disruption.

To provide a clearer understanding of how global dynamics are playing out on the ground, there follows a snapshot of recent developments across key countries and regions (as mentioned above, please read the reports in our Mirror publication for a more detailed overview).

Turkey: As the largest importer of recycled ferrous metal, Turkey remains a bellwether for global sentiment. While demand has been relatively stable, the ongoing weakness of the Turkish lira and uncertainty around inflation and domestic construction activity have added layers of complexity. Mills are operating cautiously, balancing local market needs with the challenges of currency volatility and shifting international trade policies.

India: India continues to demonstrate long-term potential, with infrastructure investment and urbanisation fuelling demand. However, recent import duty adjustments and currency fluctuations have made raw material procurement more expensive, forcing some buyers to seek alternatives or renegotiate contracts. Domestic recycled metal collection is slowly improving but remains insufficient to meet the needs of a growing steel sector.

European Union: Europe is grappling with energy cost pressures, sluggish industrial output in key economies like Germany, and an increasingly protectionist stance towards exports of raw materials, including recycled steel. The EU’s proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is also creating uncertainty for exporters and importers alike, raising concerns about competitiveness and compliance.

South East Asia: Emerging economies in South East Asia have become increasingly active in the global recycled steel market, especially as supply from traditional exporters has been redirected. Countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia have ramped up steel production, leading to higher recycled metal imports. However, logistical bottlenecks and inconsistent policy environments continue to pose challenges.

North America: In the USA, domestic demand for recycled ferrous has been relatively healthy, supported by strong infrastructure spending and favourable policy incentives for green steelmaking. Nevertheless, the imposition of tariffs has strained export markets, and ferrous metal processors are closely monitoring developments ahead of the next election cycle, which could alter trade policy significantly.

United Kingdom: The UK market has experienced mixed signals amid ongoing economic headwinds and post-Brexit trade adjustments. Domestic steel production remains constrained, leading to a strong export emphasis for the UK’s recycled ferrous metal. However, exporters are facing increasing pressure from shipping costs, regulatory compliance (particularly around waste shipment rules) and uncertainty around future EU trade agreements. However, longer-term investment in green steel initiatives such as electric arc furnace capacity may provide a more stable demand base in the years to come.

As we look to the second half of the year, the global recycled ferrous market remains in a delicate balance. Trade policy decisions, currency fluctuations, energy prices and geopolitical developments will all play a role in shaping the landscape. But as always, it is demand - the oxygen - that will ultimately sustain or smother market momentum.

While tariffs may continue to create flashpoints, they are transient compared to the underlying structural trends driving our industry: decarbonisation, the circular economy and the rising global appetite for sustainable steelmaking solutions. These longer-term forces present both challenges and opportunities, and it is within forums like BIR that we can chart a clearer course together.

The Valencia Convention offers an ideal setting for these vital conversations. I encourage you to take full advantage of the insights, exchanges and expertise on offer throughout the event. As always, the Ferrous Division remains committed to supporting your success through provision of accurate information, advocacy and a global perspective.

I would like to thank the BIR Secretariat team for their hard work and dedication to our sector and my divisional board colleagues for their individual and informative Mirror reports, which I hope you will appreciate reading.

If you are a member of BIR and think you could contribute your skills and expand our geographical representation, the Ferrous Division board would welcome your interest. Global regions of particular interest are, among others, Asia, Europe, South America and Turkey.

I look forward to meeting many of you - old friends and new acquaintances - in Valencia.

In the meantime, thank you once again for your continued trust and participation.