United States

The US recycled steel market has long been supply-driven. A tightness of availability during the harsher winter months pushed up prices on continued new steel demand driven by fewer imports owing to higher tariffs and thus higher mill operating rates in the USA. That strength was increased by US steel mills’ discipline in keeping their inventories low and their lead times long; this was evident in April when many of them scheduled downtime to match production. 

The late winter and spring are generally times for restocking as consumers return to the market after the holidays. Historically, that translates into increased steel production at a time when recycled steel supply is still constrained by winter weather. While tight availability was a factor in recycled steel prices climbing US$ 30 per ton in February, warmer weather in March and April allowed for plenty of material to get to market. With higher recycled steel prices and a then weaker export market, the healthy availability of recycled steel translated into prices that were flat in March and dropped on average US$ 20 per ton in April.

The shift from increased demand and tighter recycled steel in late winter to healthy flows by spring was taken as a negative by dealers who anticipated the potential for further downside in demand and pricing moving forward. The US economy and consumers are facing many headwinds in an uncertain political environment. The war in Iran has driven oil prices to over US$ 100 per barrel and resulted in higher costs for everything that moves, including food and goods. Consumer sentiment in turn was becoming negative, as reflected in US economic data such as weak GDP (2.0% for the first quarter of 2026) and decreases in important metals consumption segments like durable goods (down 1.4% in February). While many dealers anticipated a weaker recycled steel market in May, the dynamics of US demand continued to outstrip supply. US mills are still operating at more than 80% capacity utilisation at the time of writing.

New steel demand in the USA has been driven by many factors, including the tariffs that have kept imports at bay and domestic mills busy despite weaker consumption in the home market. Coupled with a renewed discipline and a philosophy of low inventories, this has allowed mills to maintain pricing power. US hot rolled coil (HRC) is currently over US$ 1070 per ton and still rising. US producer Nucor has raised the price of HRC every week for 15 weeks on low inventories of new steel and long lead times in the spot market. If you are ordering new steel today in the spot market, you may not see it until July. That gives mills pricing power.     

Strong mill run rates and lead times have been a blessing for recycled steel dealers. As US demand has increased, less recycled steel has left the USA for the export market. That had been as a consequence of stronger domestic pricing, but the situation has changed: tight recycled steel availability in the international market has driven up the price of new steel in the important US export markets of Turkey and Asia, translating into higher recycled steel export prices that are now close to parity with US domestic levels. That is currently supporting US recycled steel prices as domestic mills vie for the same material that Turkey and Asia need. In the short term, this is supportive of US recycled steel prices as May trading gets started.

Historically, the late spring and early summer markets bring lower recycled steel prices amid healthy flows on milder weather, and demand would begin to slow as we entered the quieter summer months. But history does not always repeat itself; in our new world of tariffs and nationalism, there has been a paradigm shift in production. Whereas international trade tended to be the dominant factor in seasonal trends, the new world order appears to be creating more domestic demand, with less recycled steel price volatility. Last year, recycled steel prices were sideways for all three summer months of June, July and August. And while past performance is no guarantee of future returns, the current US market appears to be holding its own.

May trading remains unsettled at the time of writing but is expected to be sideways on obsolete grades (shred and cuts) and potentially up on prime grades (busheling). A significant increase in pig iron prices - the substitute for prime recycled steel - and less availability of busheling in the market may provide some strength as mills are currently driven by sheet production which is dependent on that grade. With mills currently running at over 80% capacity, recycled steel appears poised for another good month in May.

The bigger question is what the future holds. The war in the Middle East is blocking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; oil is currently over US$ 100 a barrel; and consumers and economies around the world are feeling the pinch of higher prices for almost everything. Can the USA continue to sell HRC at over US$ 1000 per ton in this environment? As always, the future is as clear as mud, although US consumer resilience has saved us so far. Let’s see for how long that consumer can last out and for how long the world will remain such an uncertain place. For now, recycled steel dynamics in the USA appear healthy. We’ll take it while it lasts.