Uncertainty: this is the term that best captures what domestic non-ferrous metals operators are experiencing. In a mix of light and shadow, Italy’s growth forecast for 2022 has been corrected upwards from +2.9% to +3.4% whereas 2023 is expected to be more challenging, with gas costs and inflation contributing to a cut in the GDP estimate of almost two percentage points, from 1.9% to 0.1%.
In September, Italy’s manufacturing sector recorded the fastest decline in production since the height of the pandemic restrictions in 2020. The decrease in volumes resulted from a combination of inflationary pressures and greater levels of uncertainty.
The Italian economy contracted in the third quarter and is expected to do so again in the subsequent two quarters. It held up better than expected in the first half of the year, with GDP increasing by 1.1% in the second quarter when compared to the previous three months. However, according to the recently-published Document of Economics and Finance, the recession has already begun.
Given these economic conditions and the Europe-wide impact of the Ukraine conflict, we could say that talking about planning and programming has now become impossible. It will take tenacity, creativity and versatility to emerge from this historically difficult period.