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India is maintaining its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with international organizations and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) offering favourable evaluations of the country’s growth prospects for the current fiscal year.

The International Monetary Fund is predicting that India’s economy will grow 6.8% in 2024/25, up from 6.5%, owing to strong domestic demand and a growing working-age population. Meanwhile, the RBI is anticipating a 7% increase in real GDP for the 2024/25 fiscal year, fuelled by demand from rural areas (after forecasts of a normal monsoon) and a robust manufacturing sector.

The latest HSBC flash India Manufacturing PMI has remained strong at 59.1, with both output and new orders for goods continuing to grow at a robust pace, albeit slightly slower than last month. International demand was solid overall, and the composite sub-index rose to its highest level since it was added to the survey in September 2014.

Furthermore, India’s goods and services tax (GST) revenues hit Rs 1.78 trillion in March, up 11.5% from last year to their second-highest level ever. For the full 2023/24 fiscal year, total GST collections reached Rs 20.18 trillion for an 11.7% increase over the previous year.

The problems in the Red Sea have had a huge impact on aluminium scrap import prices into India. Compared to alloy ingot and primary metal values, the aluminium scrap price still seems high and a correction is anticipated for the coming quarter.

For ingots, export sales from India to other Asian countries have fallen significantly while imports o­­­­­f aluminium ingots from South East Asian countries have increased. Spot prices of aluminium ADC12 alloy ingot recently experienced a slight uptick to around US$ 2610 per tonne ex works Delhi. Notably, Tense prices reached US$ 2299.13 per tonne ex works Delhi, marking a weekly increase of US$ 71.50. Market sources indicated that Tense offers in Chennai were hovering around US$ 2215.31 per tonne, with spot prices for ADC12 in Chennai ranging between US$ 2610.47 and US$ 2622.44 per tonne ex works on immediate terms, excluding GST.

Extrusion and deox demand are both strong.

Following a quarter of lower prices for copper scrap in India, the onset of summer has brought a shortage in the domestic market. Imports of copper scrap, especially good quality, have become viable. Demand for copper scrap is very high from all sectors, particularly for continuous cast rod. The shortage has been compounded by the problems in the Red Sea which have delayed the arrival of all vessels. Internationally, scrap prices have tightened and discounts to virgin metal have declined significantly.

Meanwhile, brass demand is slow owing to the sudden increase on the LME.

Anirudha Agrawal

Manaksia Aluminium CO LTD. (IND), Guest contributor


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