India

Despite facing headwinds such as inflationary pressures and a global economic slowdown, India’s growth momentum remains resilient with the help of retail spending, private capital expenditure and government investment in infrastructure.

The HSBC flash India manufacturing PMI rose to 58.3 in June, registering a notable increase in intermediate and investment goods. Indian manufacturers also saw a robust sales expansion owing to rising export volumes. This growth has led to increased hiring, marking the strongest job creation rate since March 2005.

Moody’s projection is for the Indian economy to grow 6.6% this fiscal year, citing strong credit demand and robust economic growth. And the United Nations has raised India’s growth forecast for 2024 to 6.9% on the back of strong public investment and resilient private consumption.

In other developments, the Indian government has mandated conformity to the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) for stainless steel and aluminium utensils.

Meanwhile, increased shipping costs into India have been driving up aluminium scrap prices, thereby negatively affecting recyclers’ margins. However, there is no shortage of scrap.

Aluminium alloy ingot demand was good for April and May but has been heading lower since June. At the time of writing, the ADC12 price is roughly US$ 2575 per tonne on the Indian market.

Prices of flat rolled aluminium products are declining. Foil producers have applied for an anti-dumping duty on imports of finished coils from China. De-ox demand is strong from the steel industry owing to increases in production capacity.

Output from Adani’s copper refinery is being ramped up gradually. When fully operational, this will change India’s copper trade dynamics. Yet, with falling treatment/refining charges and Indonesia’s willingness to ban the export of copper concentrates, challenges remain for India’s newest refiner.

Zinc alloy ingot demand is slowing from the automotive industry. Secondary zinc demand from brass manufacturers also seems to be low. Supply of zinc dross appears good.