Nordic Countries

So many mixed signals are emanating from the market: there is too much to do; there is not enough material coming in; things are slow; it’s difficult to sell material; sales prices are great (if only there were more material); freight rates are too high; it’s difficult to find trucks for deliveries. To sum all this up, sentiment is not that positive and there is still less material available.

Competition for material is tough, with even the smallest deals turning into a big fight and margins adjusting downwards accordingly. Some smaller yards are struggling for their existence while others are happy not to have the big overhead costs of the larger companies. There is even some relief that the summer vacations are here, with conditions set to be quieter and more relaxed as some yards close for a few weeks.

In Denmark, the economy is showing signs of wider growth. Inflation is falling and unemployment remains low. Despite these strong economic indicators, consumer and business sentiment is low owing to reduced purchasing power and concentrated growth around Novo Nordisk. However, the outlook is expected to improve with higher real wages, lower interest rates and rising house prices, which will support households and broaden economic growth.

Sweden appears to be heading for an upswing. Despite weakness among key trading partners, exports are performing well. Record-high bankruptcies have had only a mild impact on unemployment, mainly as a result of new entrants to the labour market rather than job losses. Inflation has fallen below expectations, prompting the Riksbank to reduce rates in May and signal further cuts.

In Norway, growth is picking up but remains below trend. Positive contributions from exports, oil investments and government demand are being counterbalanced by weak private consumption and investment. However, lower inflation and higher wages are expected to boost household purchasing power.

Finland is showing tentative signs of a turnaround. The economy recovered from a technical recession early in the year but remained sluggish in the second quarter. Falling inflation and recovering export demand are expected to drive growth in 2024. Labour markets remain steady, although some sectors face a shortage of skilled workers.