United States

Politically, much has changed in recent months: there have been two assassination attempts on Donald Trump, and the Democrats have replaced President Biden with his Vice President Kamala Harris in their bid for the White House. All this churning has ended with an incredibly competitive race as we go into the final days of the election cycle, with the outcome likely to be decided by a small number of states. The rest of the government will also be very closely divided, with neither party gaining much ground. 

The economic front has been a little more settled. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 0.5% - the first reduction in more than four years. The Fed is satisfied with the drop in inflation but is concerned about the strength of the labour markets. The housing markets are happy about the lower interest rates which should keep prices buoyant. There are signs that auto sales are slowing as inventories are rising, and the build rate estimates have come down recently. There was also a recent report on consumer confidence being at its lowest level in three years. 

As for recycling, we are starting to see some of the greenfield aluminium expansions entering the marketplace and causing sporadic shortages of certain items. Rolling mill scrap was very tight recently but now seems to be a little better balanced. Extrusion scrap is hit or miss. Whereas that part of the business had been expected to return to growth in the second half of this year, people are now saying any improvements are likely to come in mid-2025. On the secondary aluminium side, export markets have been faltering of late amid reduced pricing and demand. Demand seems reasonable and stable domestically. 

We are now entering the period of contract negotiations for 2025, with the mills concerned about availability of scrap given increased demand from the new operators. There have been some recent calls to prohibit the export of scrap metals, but these have not gained much traction as yet. 

Domestically, copper spreads have widened slightly but demand is good. Brass ingot-maker demand in the USA has fallen off, with order books a little light. 

The recent strikes at East Coast, Southeast and Gulf Coast ports had the potential to dampen scrap flows. However, these actions have now been suspended following the announcement of a tentative deal.