Australasia

The year is ending on a more subdued note than is typical for Australia and New Zealand. The usual end-of-year stock clear-out has been happening throughout the year and so quantities are not as usual. Margin erosion is ever-present, with less volume and merchants keen to chase tonnes.

Consumers and alternative traditional markets are buying at current levels, although most foundries are expected to shut for maintenance at Christmas, as is typical for this part of the world.

Macro-fundamentals are changing. In late November, New Zealand again dropped the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points - its second cut in as many months - and signalled further drops were likely in February. While this will be a relief to some, the latest rate of 4.25% is still relatively high compared with many OECD countries, although now slightly lower than major export partner Australia.