Portugal & Spain

In Portugal and Spain, most copper foundries are currently undergoing maintenance and will remain closed until January 2025, thus bringing down local prices to below export levels. From January 1 2025, an export ban will be implemented on e-motors and Shelmo outside the EU; local prices for e-motors in Portugal and Spain have already dropped drastically. The aluminium market remains stable but everyone is discussing the potential for change owing to possible US tariffs.

In Portugal, the third quarter of 2024 saw consistent growth and this is expected to persist until the year’s end. The Portuguese economy expanded by 0.2%, driven mostly by the services and construction sectors. GDP growth is projected to decrease to 1.7% in 2024 from 2,3% last year but to improve to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026.

The labour market is stable in Portugal, with a 1.6% increase in jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.4%. The tourism sector is maintaining its positive performance, with annual visitor numbers growing by 2.9%.

Recent devastating floods constituted the most severe natural disaster suffered by Spain in years. Despite their impact on the country, Spain’s economy is thriving and growth is projected to exceed G7 countries in achieving 2.9% by the end of the year. Tourism is one of the key factors behind this growth, although it has also led to overcrowding in the most popular tourist destinations and has thus increased the demands placed on water and other resources.

According to the Bank of Spain, the country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has dropped 3.8 percentage points from June to 104.4% and is projected to continue its decline in 2025 before stabilising at 101.1% in 2026.