India

Over the next three years to 2027, India is set to be the most resilient economy among the world’s top 10 while also becoming the fourth largest by 2026, according to the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry. GDP is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2024/25 and by 7.7% in 2025/26.

According to Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, foreign direct investment into India is rising sharply, with investors from the Middle East, Japan, the EU and the USA seeing it as a top destination, thereby boosting growth and creating jobs. In addition, India’s Goods & Services Tax collections climbed 7.3% year to year despite recording a three-month low in December. The figures show steady revenues but weaker consumption and more refunds. Experts believe the dip may be due to a post-festive slowdown, with hopes for a recovery in the March quarter.

Aluminium scrap availability has been improving in the new year but prices are still high. As an indication, Zorba prices were at US$ 1975 per tonne and ADC12 was US$ 50 lower at US$ 2340, both as of January 14. Meanwhile, the EU’s new Waste Shipment Regulation is proving to be a source of concern for the industry. 

For lead, scrap import prices are high owing to the depreciation of the rupee, and there has been a decline in lead ingot exports from India. Lower demand is expected to be seen for the fourth quarter whereas domestic demand is expected to rise from April 2025 onwards. The extended producer responsibility introduced for battery manufacturers will help local collections of used batteries.

Supply of zinc die-cast scrap is good whereas demand and prices for zinc die-cast ingot are subdued.

Domestic demand for copper is strong. At the time of writing, Comex is US$ 400 higher than the LME in anticipation of US tariffs being introduced by the new Trump Administration; as a result, copper scrap is moving towards the US market. The export ban on electrical waste from the EU has reduced scrap availability for Indian consumers.