India

Driven by strong domestic demand, India’s growth has remained stable despite global challenges. However, the economy still faces major risks from capital outflows by foreign investors and the weakening of the Indian rupee. The uncertainty around US trade relations and retaliatory tariffs from the Trump administration also poses concerns.

According to Moody’s credit rating agency, India’s real GDP is projected to grow between 5.5% and 6.5% in 2025 - slightly below earlier estimates owing to global trade uncertainties.

At the same time, imports into India have been boosted by falling global shipping freight rates.

Aluminium scrap prices have moved higher owing to US tariffs. North American wrought scrap has dried up while cast grade scrap continues to flow into India. Meanwhile, UAE shipments to India have dropped owing to scrap yards being unable to recover VAT on any exports; higher grade scrap from the UAE - such as Tread, Talon and mill grade - is flowing to the EU and USA.

Many sectors are adding primary metal as a substitute for scrap. The primary metal premium QMJP has fallen by US$ 50 and a further downward correction of US$ 40-50 is expected from the July quarter.

Overall, the scrap spread to primary is the lowest seen in recent years; scrap prices need to correct by 3-5%.

Good news for the recycling industry has been the reduction in the import duty on copper scrap to 0%. Demand seems to be healthy.