United States

The tariff story is in a constant state of flux: tariffs are threatened or implemented and then updated as the Trump administration gets feedback or the markets react poorly. There has been some clarity added to the auto tariffs, giving a small break to vehicles that are mostly assembled in the USA - but imported parts are attracting tariffs of 25%. There has also been an effort to avoid stacking tariffs on top of each other in a way that could increase costs significantly.  

The Trump administration claims that it is making progress on negotiations with some larger trading partners, with the possibility of some agreements being announced soon. China and the USA are at an impasse, however, with large barriers more than doubling the costs for most items traded between the two countries.   

The recently-announced US GDP figure for the first quarter revealed that shrinkage in the economy was worse than expected at 0.3%. At the same time, imports of goods soared in the first three months of 2025 to avoid potential tariffs. 

The US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) continues to work on cost and waste reduction in the Federal government, but activity is more muted. Elon Musk has announced that he will shortly leave his DOGE role to move back to leadership of Tesla. Meanwhile, latest US unemployment figures are unchanged in the 4% range, but there is concern that trade wars and undermined confidence may lead to a fall in consumer demand.

As for metals, copper pricing and spreads have been extremely volatile as the government investigates whether it should implement an import tariff, with the threat of a 25% charge (the same as on aluminium and steel). This has led to a large arbitrage between Comex and LME pricing. Domestic spreads for copper scrap have widened significantly as cheaper LME metals may be shipping into the USA ahead of any tariff. Copper mills are also a little slow and fearful of these remarkably high terminal markets. 

On the aluminium side, secondary ingot prices are stable and smelters are finally getting some relief on scrap prices. Rolling mills seem to have slowed down, with a large producer closing a few of its plants. Some mills are scheduling a few months out, with spreads remaining stable. UBC has come off its very tight spreads from the start of the year to more sensible levels. Domestic billet producers and extruders are busy, with longer lead times; imports have been dropping as duties have made US-bound shipments less attractive.