Mexico

The domestic non-ferrous scrap market continues to navigate an increasingly volatile environment shaped by fluctuating currency levels, persistent trade threats and shifting demand patterns in the automotive and recycling sectors.

During the past month, the Mexican peso has experienced notable volatility, trading between MX$ 18.61 and MX$ 19.21 to the US dollar; at the time of writing, the exchange rate is MX$ 18.73. A stronger peso complicates exports by reducing price competitiveness abroad, and many exporters have felt the pinch amid these fluctuations.

The domestic automotive sector, a key consumer of secondary aluminium, has offered some cause for optimism. Vehicle production in June was 4.8% higher than in the same month last year, and the first half of 2025 saw total light vehicle output reach 2 million units - its highest level since 2019. However, this recovery has not fully translated into export gains: while monthly exports improved over June 2024, the cumulative total for the first half of 2025 brought a 2.8% contraction, mainly through reduced shipments to the USA.

Scrap markets, particularly for cast aluminium, experienced intense tightness through most of the month. Prices surged temporarily as domestic consumers rushed to secure prompt material. Similarly, though shorter-lived, price spikes were seen in the extrusion and old sheet segments but these rallies quickly cooled as high prices dampened overall demand.

Adding to the market’s complexity, more imported aluminium scrap - originally destined for the USA - is now being offered to Mexican consumers. These shipments are being redirected either because US consumers have reached capacity or because new trade barriers are affecting certain countries of origin.

On the policy front, uncertainty remains a defining theme. Just last week, US President Donald Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on Mexican imports from 25% to 30%. It remains unclear whether this increase would apply to USMCA-covered goods or to aluminium and steel products already subject to Section 232 tariffs. Similar ambiguity confronts exporters from other nations, contributing to a tense global trade environment.

The dialogue, transparency and timely market intelligence fostered by BIR are more crucial than ever in guiding us through this period of turbulence.