Germany & Poland

The German economy has been showing relative resilience in a difficult environment, with the Bundesbank projecting modest GDP growth in the third quarter despite persistent challenges. Inflation, however, rose to 2.4% in September for its highest rate since February, thus exerting pressure on households and shaping monetary policy debates.

In contrast, Poland continues to benefit from robust EU investments, stable domestic demand and moderate inflation of 2.9%. However, shifts in its borrowing from the EU Recovery Fund underline structural adjustments. The deep economic ties between the two countries remain critical as Germany’s sluggish demand could weigh on Poland’s export momentum.

Across Europe, smelting companies report sharply declining order volumes and weak industrial demand. Elevated energy prices, combined with heavy bureaucracy and uncertainty surrounding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, have intensified the pressures on production. Some facilities have already scaled back output, while others are struggling to remain profitable. The resulting imbalance places growing strain on recycling companies, which are forced to stockpile and finance increasing volumes of unsold scrap metal.

Amid these structural challenges, industry associations are intensifying their calls for stricter trade measures on recycled metals and steel, ranging from outright export bans to punitive tariffs. The rhetoric has grown more forceful in recent months, reflecting mounting frustration within the sector. However, the core issue lies less in global trade than in Europe’s weak economic growth and insufficient industrial demand. Protectionist measures risk adding further uncertainty while leaving the sector’s long-term competitiveness unresolved.