Italy

Hampered by a difficult European and global context, growth in Italy will remain low, according to a forecast from Confindustria’s Research Center. The estimate is now for an annual GDP increase of 0.5% in 2025 - or 0.1 percentage points below what was predicted in April. The growth estimate for 2026, meanwhile, has been lowered to 0.7% as compared to the 1% increase estimated in April; this is consistent with 2024 levels.

For trade with countries outside the EU-27 in August this year, Istat has estimated a significant cyclical decline in both incoming and outgoing flows, with exports falling 8.1% and imports 7.1%. The monthly contraction in exports was due to lower sales of capital goods (-16.7%), durable consumer goods (-9.4%) and non-durable consumer goods (-7.8%); by contrast, there were higher exports of energy (+5.9%) and intermediate goods (+2.2%).

On the import side, there were widespread cyclical decreases, the largest being for non-durable consumer goods (-16.5%), followed by intermediate goods (-6.1%) and durable consumer goods (-5.1%). When comparing the June-August quarter with the previous one, exports were virtually unchanged (-0.1%), reflecting a decrease in sales of durable consumer goods (-6.2%) and non-durable goods (-4.6%) but an increase in exports of energy (+21.2%), capital goods (+2.5%) and intermediate goods (+2.1%). In the same period, imports decreased by 0.8% owing to a reduction in purchases across all categories, with the exception of capital goods (+3.5%).

In the second quarter of 2025, there was slower growth in household purchasing power, although it maintained the almost uninterrupted positive trend seen since the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, there was a slow but almost continuous increase in the propensity to save: disposable income rose by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, and final consumption increased by 0.5%. The savings rate is estimated to have climbed 0.3 percentage points to 9.5%, as with purchasing power, which grew by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.

Adolfo Urso, the Minister of Enterprises and Made in Italy, has announced a new, more flexible measure that can also be used by energy-intensive companies, which will replace the Industry 4.0 and Transition 5.0 incentives. The initiative, currently being defined with trade associations, will be free from European constraints that exclude the most energy-intensive industries, and will be financed in a structured way via national resources.