United States

The mid-term elections were not kind to President Trump and the Republicans, and may be a sign of shifting sentiment around his policies. Polling showed that there is real concern about general affordability and access to healthcare. There appears to be a general distaste for anything relating to politics as well as a frustration with both parties. President Trump quickly removed tariffs on some of the public’s key groceries, such as coffee, imported fruit and vegetables. 

Now ended after more than 40 days, the government shutdown caused weeks of interrupted air travel, limited access to some services and no progress on improving upcoming cost increases for healthcare in 2026. 

Recent jobs reports have been mixed, with higher unemployment and yet larger-than-expected job growth. With Americans gearing up for the holiday shopping season, we will see how low consumer confidence affects retail sales. Up to this point, we are showing ourselves to be quite the shoppers even when confidence levels are low. 

Mill demand for recycled aluminium remains dull, with continued wide spreads. Most rolling mills are still sitting on the sidelines or have offers that are unattractive to sellers. The same is true for billet casthouses, with large spread offers. Most consumers seem to be moving into end-of-the-year mode in which they work to get their raw material inventories as low as possible. Supply negotiations for 2026 are also moving slowly as most mills are trying to lock in the current wide scrap spreads; suppliers seem to be dragging their feet and are unlikely to be willing to lock in these spreads for an entire year. 

The fire several months ago at Novelis’ Oswego mill was well on the way to being repaired when another fire occurred, so a December restart is looking less likely. The outages have affected the supply chain for auto body sheet as the plant had been supplying 40% of US needs. 

Secondary aluminium ingot makers continue with flat ingot and scrap prices, with sales slowing as we approach the end of the year. Domestic copper spreads on high-grade materials have widened again as demand is low and mills are tightening up for year-end inventories.