Germany & Poland

In Germany, the economy continues to face significant headwinds: industrial output remains weak, investment is cautious and growth in 2025 is forecast only at around 0.3%, according to the latest projection. Poland, by contrast, remains one of the more dynamic economies in the region: as per the most recent assessment by the International Monetary Fund, its economy is expected to grow by around 3.5% in 2025, supported by private consumption, strong labour markets and EU‑funded investments. 

Against this macro-economic backdrop, the metals recycling and scrap sector in Europe is under growing strain. There has been an intensification not only of regulatory pressures but also of discussions about export restrictions or bans on scrap, especially aluminium and steel. This regulatory focus threatens to undermine open trade dynamics and could severely hamper the operational reliability of recyclers across Europe.

Interestingly, copper associations across Europe have even added their voices to the call for an export ban, with many smelters signing on enthusiastically. Yet in a rather paradoxical twist, these same smelters have been largely absent from the market since October or are purchasing only very limited quantities. This approach seems likely to continue well into the early part of 2026, leaving recyclers to navigate both regulatory zeal and unexpectedly thin demand.

There are some positive signs in the aluminium segment: benchmark prices - such as the so‑called “226 ingot” index - have recently recovered, leading to a modest stabilisation of secondary aluminium prices in parts of the market. Yet supply remains fragile: demand from key industries such as automotive, machinery and construction continues to be subdued, thus suppressing scrap generation from the manufacturing and demolition sectors, and keeping certain material qualities scarce.

The financial pressure on European recycling companies is mounting. With volatile metal prices, uncertain demand and challenging market structures such as the backwardation on the LME for copper, many recyclers are struggling with cash flow and liquidity. Payment delays from buyers, extended financing periods for inventory and general market uncertainty have combined to make it increasingly difficult to sustain operations. The sector has already begun to see insolvencies - a stark reminder that, especially now, “cash is king”.

From the perspective of many members of the German and Polish recycling associations, it is strategically critical to preserve open markets, flexible trade and stable regulation. They strongly believe that only through free trade, consistent policies and open supply chains can the European recycling infrastructure remain viable, meet raw material demand and support the transition to a circular economy across the continent.