Nordic Countries

There might not be a clear light at the end of the tunnel yet - at least not a steady one - but there is a glimmer. A new sense of calm has settled over the industry. Companies have begun adjusting to lower volumes and accepting a new market reality. And despite the slowdown, business continues and there is still work to be done. The world hasn’t stopped; it has simply shifted.

Material remains scarce, however, and competition for what is available has intensified. More market participants are now chasing the same tonnes, and this naturally puts pressure on pricing. Margins are tightening, negotiations are tougher and the entire value chain is feeling the squeeze.

As early as the beginning of November, selling material became noticeably more challenging as long-term contracts filled up and smelters closed their order books. This has created a mixed mood across the market: part concern, part anticipation. On the one hand, there is uncertainty about the near future; on the other, there is a cautious optimism - a belief that demand may finally regain momentum in 2026. But the timeline has shifted from an expectation of improved growth at the beginning of 2026 to more people now anticipating that the better times will not arrive until the third or even the fourth quarter of next year.

The complication is that manufacturing activity still hasn’t fully recovered. Industries across the Nordic region are navigating a period of transition and uncertainty, and the differences between countries are becoming more pronounced. Sweden is experiencing a consumer-driven recovery while industrial output remains subdued, despite strong process industries in forestry, chemicals and steel. Finland continues to struggle with weak growth, high unemployment and soft consumption despite rising wages and improving confidence indicators. Norway, meanwhile, is showing resilience, supported by business formation, economic momentum and overall market confidence. Denmark stands out with its comparatively stronger industrial climate and its more positive outlook for the year ahead.

So progress is taking place across the region - but not at the same pace and not in the same way. The coming year will demand patience, flexibility, careful risk-taking and strategic positioning. Those who stay close to the market, protect relationships and navigate the tight availability landscape with discipline will be best positioned for what comes next. And for those who endure, adapt and keep moving forward, there’s reason to believe that the flickering light ahead may soon shine a little brighter.