India

India’s economy delivered a strong growth performance in the September quarter of 2025 as GDP expanded 8.2% year on year - well above market expectations of 7.3% and accelerating from 7.8% in the previous quarter. This marked the fastest annual growth since March 2024, underscoring the economy’s resilience despite the USA imposing 50% tariffs in August.  

Looking ahead, external institutions remain constructive on India’s growth outlook. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2026 financial year growth forecast to 7.3%, following the National Statistics Office’s upward revision to 7.4% for the current fiscal year. However, the IMF expects growth to moderate thereafter, projecting 6.3% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027 as cyclical support fades.

External sector trends remain a key vulnerability. Net foreign direct investment remained negative for a fourth consecutive month in November last year; outflows exceeded inflows by US$ 446 million, driven by higher repatriation and disinvestment. The trade deficit widened to US$ 25 billion in December as imports rose 8.8% year on year to US$ 63.6 billion whereas exports grew only 1.8%, weighed down by higher US tariffs and the lack of a bilateral trade agreement. That said, India’s external buffers remain strong: foreign exchange reserves climbed to a 13-week high of US$ 701 billion in mid-January 2026, providing stability against external shocks.

Significant quantities of aluminium scrap are available from North America. Meanwhile, falling freight costs in India are having a direct, positive impact on consumers. The ADC12 export market to China and Japan is described as weak as Indian producers focus on demand at home owing to high domestic prices. In the last quarter, export offers for ADC12 to China and Japan were maintained at some US$ 2300-2420 per tonne.

Copper demand is looking very strong and retail consumers are buying copper bars as an investment. The USA is absorbing much of the copper scrap from world markets and this is creating shortages.