United States

The USA continues to contend with plenty of political and economic uncertainty. Since our previous Mirror, President Trump’s administration has created major headlines over Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba and Iran, and has also threatened tariffs on long-term partners in the EU and North America before mostly retreating from those threats.

The economy has held up well in the face of all the uncertainty, with inflation remaining relatively tame and GDP growth surprising to the positive. There was also positive news about manufacturing activity expanding for the first time in nearly a year. The labour markets have remained disappointing, however, with little job growth in all of 2025.

The country is dealing with internal strife around immigration enforcement tactics which have caused fear and uncertainty in some cities. Most signs are pointing to a divided government after the 2026 elections. Nevertheless, wealthy US consumers still keep shopping while those on lower incomes are suffering with increased costs on their most basic needs, leading to the current K-shaped economy.

The USA recently reached a record high on its all-in primary aluminium price of nearly US$ 2.55 per pound, with the regional premium reaching US$ 1.04. Rolling mills have kept their spreads wide as most scrap items are readily available. UBC prices remain at historically wide spreads, although there are good discounts and demand for high magnesium alloys.

The large Novelis plant in New York will be out of commission for the near term after experiencing a second fire late last year; there is no firm date for a restart. This has shifted the scrap markets around as this was the biggest producer of auto body sheet and a large producer of can sheet.

The secondary aluminium ingot market has finally taken off, with the price rising nearly 10 cents per pound in the last month. The pressure of increased scrap prices has pushed ingot higher as overseas demand and pricing have pulled scrap out of the USA. The domestic auto market, with its shift away from EVs, has benefited domestic die-casters with steady business.

Domestic copper spreads on high grade materials have widened somewhat, and demand is good if you are willing to accept the new spread reality.