Nordic Countries

The year kicked off with blizzards and prolonged cold weather across the Nordic region. While harsh winters are nothing unusual, conditions this year were more extreme than normal. When people returned from the Christmas holidays, many yards were covered in deep snow, slowing down operations.

January is usually sluggish but these conditions contributed to an even slower start to the year than expected. Towards the end of January, business activity and production gradually picked up and material has been starting to move again, but overall availability remains limited and many are complaining that it is too quiet both in the yards and on the phones.

Expectations of a stronger start to the year had been fuelled in part by relatively high LME prices. However, the weather made both logistics and sales more challenging. At the same time, market sentiment is being affected by a growing discrepancy between sellers’ price expectations and what buyers are actually willing to pay.

The elevated prices are putting pressure on liquidity, forcing some companies to move material more quickly than before. At the same time, certain lower-grade and more complex material streams remain difficult to place. Despite this, some buyers are in urgent need of material and are prepared to pay prices that appear unsustainably high.

Looking ahead, market conditions are expected to remain mixed, with weather, price volatility and financing constraints continuing to influence both availability and trading behaviour in the coming months.

The Swedish economy is showing a broad-based recovery, supported by resilient exports as well as by improving business and household confidence. Consumption is expected to strengthen as unemployment gradually falls and inflation remains low. The Riksbank is holding rates steady for now, with policy normalisation expected later as growth picks up. Despite a stronger Swedish krona, industrial exports have accelerated and are showing notable resilience in a challenging global environment.

Denmark remains economically strong, with record-high employment, resilient exports and solid public finances. Household confidence is recovering and high savings, together with tax relief, are expected to support consumption growth. House prices continue to rise at a more moderate pace. GDP growth has been revised upwards, driven mainly by consumption. Monetary policy remains tight, meanwhile, with a potential isolated rate hike expected in 2026.

Finland is continuing its sluggish recovery, held back by high unemployment, weak household confidence and a soft housing market. Public finances offer limited support, but

early signs of improvement are emerging in manufacturing and exports. Growth is expected to remain modest in the near term, with a gradual improvement towards 2027.

Norway’s economic growth remains close to its long-term trend, unemployment is still low, and inflation is easing but remains above target. A stronger Norwegian krone provides scope for further rate cuts, with Norges Bank expected to ease policy during the year. Consumption growth remains subdued as households continue to prioritise savings despite improved purchasing power.