China

China’s non-ferrous scrap metal sector is contending with broad price volatility, a regulatory push for resource self-reliance and strict import compliance deadlines. The market is balancing a long-term governmental goal to expand recycled metal output with near-term logistical and global macro constraints. Recent data indicate highly volatile daily pricing across major non-ferrous scrap commodities in the domestic market.

The Chinese government is continuing to implement its 2025-26 Two-Year Work Plan to stabilise and aggressively grow the non-ferrous metals industry. The plan sets a target of raising China’s annual recycled non-ferrous metal output to over 20 million tonnes and of achieving 5% average annual growth in the sector’s value-added output.

Jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the policy tilts heavily towards achieving self-reliance in critical supply chains like copper, aluminium and lithium in order to hedge against geopolitical tensions.

As regards the new Mineral Resources Law taking effect recently, this legal framework grants authorities a formal basis to counter foreign trade restrictions and optimise strategic stockpiles, directly impacting how scrap and minerals move across borders.

Domestic auto sales data for the first five months of the year highlight a clear structural rebalancing towards electrification and globalisation amid sluggish home demand. Total vehicle sales declined 4.2% year on year to 12.207 million units. Retail numbers dropped significantly in the domestic market, extending an eight-month run of year-on-year declines. However, vehicle exports surged 68.7% year on year in May to 930,000 units to take the export share of total vehicle production to nearly 36%.

Owing to this weak home demand, the China Passenger Car Association has revised its 2026 forecast downwards and is now projecting an 11-20% contraction in domestic retail sales for the full year.