Report for the USA

Tariffs have not delivered the market relief many in the industry had anticipated. At the same time, persistently low oil prices have driven down virgin resin costs to levels that are having a devastating impact on recycled plastics markets overall. The price gap between virgin and recycled material continues to undermine demand for recycled feedstock and is constraining margins across the value chain.

PET markets remain flat. Reclaimers are continuing to purchase because bale prices are extremely low, but they are moving material out at similarly depressed prices to avoid inventory build-up. Imported PET flake is currently trading at approximately US$ 0.40 per lb while domestic flake ranges from US$ 0.45 to US$ 0.50, leaving very little margin. Mexico has begun to re-enter the bale market, but only opportunistically on the spot market; major Mexican buyers have not resumed consistent purchasing from the USA. Meanwhile, South East Asia is largely absent from export markets and is buying very little material.

There is some movement in the market, but volumes remain well below normal. Significant supply is building in the domestic market following reclaimer line and business closures which have further weakened pricing. East Coast buyers are largely out of the West Coast market owing to falling bale prices in their region and the high cost of freight.

Virgin PET pricing continues to exert strong downward pressure, with imported virgin resin selling at around US$ 0.55-0.58 per lb and domestic virgin at US$ 0.65-0.70. Pricing varies widely in the pellet market: some reclaimers are being forced to sell at levels that directly compete with virgin resin while others are achieving prices up to roughly US$ 0.70 per lb with specific end-buyers.

The near-term outlook remains weak. While there is some hope for an improvement beginning in April, current indicators point towards another challenging year for the recycled PET market.

Natural HDPE prices have continued to strengthen, recently ticking up from approximately US$ 0.47-0.50 per lb owing to seasonal tightness in supply. Bale availability remains constrained, reflecting longer-term shifts in packaging trends - particularly in the milk sector where more volume has moved to cartons and glass, along with the continued growth of plant-based alternatives that rely less on HDPE bottles. As a result, most natural HDPE is moving into domestic markets, with very limited export activity.

A significant pricing gap persists between natural and coloured HDPE with the latter currently trading at roughly US$ 0.07 per lb, reflecting weak demand and a flat market across domestic and export channels. This spread between natural and coloured grades remains unusually wide.

LDPE markets have weakened considerably, with pricing dropping around 40% from around US$ 0.21 per lb to US$ 0.12, largely owing to California’s plastic bag bans which have reduced material flows and disrupted end-market demand. Compounding the issue, the absence of recycled-content mandates has allowed manufacturers to shift back towards lower-cost virgin resin, further limiting demand for recycled LDPE.

Markets remain flat for recycled polypropylene, with weak demand continuing to constrain activity. Buyers are increasingly substituting lower-priced virgin resin, which is undercutting recycled material and limiting purchasing interest. Imports of finished PP resin have further pressured domestic markets, reducing both sales of recycled pellets and demand for PP bales. As a result, bale pricing has fallen into single digits, currently trading at approximately US$ 0.05-0.06 per lb in reflection of a persistently oversupplied and sluggish market.

In summary, tariffs have not made a meaningful difference to market conditions. Low-priced imports of both recycled and virgin plastics continue to place significant downward pressure on domestic recycled material markets, undermining demand and squeezing margins across the value chain. In the absence of a major shift, the industry is unlikely to see improvement without government legislative intervention such as stronger recycled-content requirements or market support measures, or a sustained increase in oil prices that would narrow the cost gap between virgin and recycled resin.