Indian Subcontinent and Turkey

Across India and Turkey , the recovered paper market in late 2025 and early 2026 has been driven less by local fundamentals than by external shocks, followed by a short phase of selective restocking ahead of key shipping windows. Pricing moved first on disruption/displaced volumes and then on timing, rather than on any clear improvement in underlying demand.

The tightening of Chinese controls on recycled pulp imports triggered a sudden imbalance across Asian fibre flows. As recycled pulp production slowed and cargoes were displaced, imported OCC prices across Asia came under heavy pressure, creating a buyer’s market for several weeks.

During this phase, Fastmarkets’ assessments placed benchmark US OCC in Asia around the low-to-mid US$ 150s per tonne, while European OCC benchmarks slipped into the high US$ 120s to low US$ 130s range. These levels marked a sharp correction from earlier in the year and set the reference point for subsequent negotiations in India and surrounding markets.

Buyers responded defensively, with many delaying purchases in anticipation of further drops, while sellers were forced into tactical discounts to clear volumes. Even where mills continued buying, transactions were framed as opportunistic rather than strategic.

India was the most visible demand centre over this period but the country’s buying interest was clearly capped by downstream economics. Domestic box demand was soft and recycled containerboard prices were under pressure, thus limiting mills’ ability to absorb higher fibre costs.

At the same time, the depreciation of the Indian rupee raised landed costs significantly, with importers estimating that the weaker currency alone increased CFR costs for US OCC by close to 10%. Mills showed clear resistance to higher offers, even as export sellers attempted to lift prices.

White grades behaved differently. After a prolonged decline, sorted office paper began to attract renewed Indian interest. Export references clustered in the high US$ 170s per tonne FAS with some offers reported above US$ 180, signalling that buyers were willing to re-enter the market where fibre substitution economics made sense. This recovery, however, was gradual and selective rather than broad-based.

Overall, India’s buying patterns reflected tight margins: relatively small changes in landed fibre costs - of the order of plus or minus 10% - were enough to shift mills from active buying to near-complete withdrawal.

Turkey emerged primarily as an alternative outlet for exporters seeking to place material outside their core markets. The country is positioned as a release valve rather than a growth driver: its demand remains highly price-sensitive and closely tied to finished product conditions and financing costs. Turkey can absorb volumes when prices fall far enough but it does not provide sustained upward momentum unless local packaging markets improve materially.

Export demand firmed as the market moved closer to the Lunar New Year shipping window, driven largely by logistics timing rather than a rebound in consumption. Bulk grades recorded a sequence of incremental increases of around US$ 5 per tonne FAS, pushing export OCC references into the mid-US$ 110s per tonne FAS and double-sorted OCC into the low US$ 120s. This improvement filtered into buyer sentiment in India, but only partially. Higher offers collided quickly with weak domestic box pricing and currency pressure, reinforcing a pattern of selective coverage rather than aggressive restocking.

For India and Turkey overall, the period was one of reactive buying in a volatile import environment. Prices were set externally, first by disruption linked to China’s recycled pulp policies and later by short-term logistical demand. India remained the most engaged market, although consistently constrained by margins and foreign exchange considerations. Turkey functioned as a secondary outlet while Bangladesh and Pakistan played only minor roles.

Without a meaningful recovery in finished packaging demand, these markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to relatively small swings in landed fibre costs, with buying interest switching on or off within a narrow price band.