Superalloys

Nickel prices remained volatile throughout the third quarter of 2024, fluctuating between averages of US$ 16,600 per tonne and reaching US$ 18,200 in October. While early optimism from the aerospace sector and electric vehicle battery demand provided some price support, growing inventories and a persistent low-grade nickel surplus weighed on the market.

Despite short-term price suppression, long-term forecasts are optimistic, with demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy expected to drive a shift from surplus to deficit by 2028. Geopolitical issues, including notably tensions in the Middle East, are also having an effect.

The superalloy market has remained robust, particularly in aerospace, defence and oil/gas. Demand for INCO 718 and IN625 has continued to be strong, although Boeing’s production delays have pushed aircraft material purchases into 2025. The oil and gas sector has seen increased superalloy demand, fuelled by higher energy prices and new exploration projects, especially in harsh environments requiring high-performance alloys.

Though slightly lower than in the second quarter of 2024, shipping costs remained elevated, particularly for China-UK routes, with container rates stabilizing around US$ 7000. Strikes on the US East Coast have also had a detrimental impact on routes, costs and arrival times. The persistent geopolitical tensions and transportation delays have affected the movement of superalloy materials and nickel, although some improvement has been noted in the level of supply chain disruption.

So while this year’s third quarter was marked by continued nickel market volatility and supply chain disruption, the long-term outlook for both nickel and superalloys remains positive, with demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy and aerospace expected to drive a market recovery. Price volatility remains focused on the stainless steel industry.