Asia

Since our last update in May, the stainless steel market has remained weak across Asia. Global trade has adopted a wait-and-see attitude owing to the impact of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. As a result, Asian demand is unlikely to improve in the short term. Somehow, a tariff deal will have to be reached which will enable trade flows to move more smoothly as in the past, but this will take time.

In the third quarter of 2025, Taiwanese mills offered weak demand for stainless steel scrap. Semi-product hot coils and nickel pig iron (NPI) remained competitive, and traditional sectors continued to show low demand. Imports of hot coil from overseas averaged 85,000 tonnes per month in the year to May. Taiwan’s stainless scrap demand is expected to remain subdued in the fourth quarter.

South Korea’s stainless steel scrap demand was also weak in the third quarter. But as furnaces at major mills are back online and melting, the final quarter of 2025 is expected to be stable - making South Korea perhaps the only country in northern Asia to show stronger demand for scrap.

Japan’s domestic consumption of stainless scrap remains steady whereas exports have dropped to low levels compared to previous years as local mills increasingly use domestic scrap. This trend is expected to continue.

The market has stayed weak in China after the tariff war began in April. Following multiple stimulus packages, the housing sector finally appears to have arrested its decline and has been levelling off. Reports are circulating that China’s stainless mills are finally cutting production but stock levels are still relatively high and will take some time to trim down.

The stainless steel coil price in China has been fluctuating within a narrow range, with 304 grade futures in Shanghai falling from approximately US$ 13,200 per tonne in May to a low of US$ 12,300 in late June before rising in early July trading to US$ 12,700.

The overall mood surrounding stainless steel imports into India has also been relatively subdued. The final quarter of 2025 may not see much of an upswing as October is expected to remain slow owing to the fact that mills and businesses will be closed for a few days for the Diwali festival. Some mills will also be carrying out annual maintenance and repair works.

Imports of stainless billets of various sizes have seen some growth in India: until earlier this year, only the larger stainless mills were importing billets but that trend seems to be changing as some of their smaller counterparts have taken trial lots as these work out cheaper than the scrap route for making finished goods. While use of billets is making finished products cheaper, the shift in consumption of scrap is becoming a cause for concern. Those stainless mills employing large numbers of workers to handle scrap are re-thinking their deployment of manpower. This inflow of billets, slabs and blooms from countries such as Indonesia and China has certainly sparked new trends in the sector.

NPI and ferro-nickel imports into India have been strong throughout 2025. A significant proportion of these imports has been via bulk vessels instead of the earlier container shipments. These imports have also impacted scrap requirements in India and this trend is expected to continue over the coming months.

A major problem for stainless manufacturers in India has been the tariffs imposed by the USA on their exported goods, which have dropped significantly. Many stainless plants are running at low production levels owing to the uncertain outlook for the coming month or two. Until these tariff problems are resolved, stainless mills may not see any improvement in their sales and exports.