United States

The US market enters the second half of 2026 with healthy generation of recycled stainless steel, a domestic bid that is solid but limited in how much it can absorb, and an export market where buyers hold the pricing leverage - in short, a volume-rich but margin-thin set-up, with nickel policy out of Indonesia ​now the biggest headwind.

On the generation side, industrial accounts are busy and producing recycled material at a good clip. Aerospace, construction, energy and data centre-related fabrication continue to lead prompt industrial flows. Overall consumption of stainless, however, is steady rather than growing: full-year 2026 use is expected to land roughly in line with 2025. With distributors carrying adequate inventories, there is no restocking wave coming to add to it. Much of the current activity levels reflect domestic mills and fabricators capturing share from displaced imports rather than a larger market. The result is more material being generated into a steady market with the surplus having to find a home.

Nickel remains the single biggest driver of recycled stainless values. Indonesia’s mining quota cuts drove nickel sharply higher through the spring but signals that Jakarta will expand quotas for the second half sent prices back down in June, giving back most of those gains. Unless that expansion is walked back or the added supply is slow to arrive, the near-term lean is lower. The exposure is grade-specific, though: 304 values move most directly with nickel, while 316 and higher-alloy material has additional support from molybdenum, which has posted its own sharp rally this year on tight supply. ​In a falling raw materials market, inventory loses value while it sits and so most yards are turning material promptly rather than holding for a recovery.

On the trade side, tariffs continue to shape where material flows. Domestic mills remain busy with utilisation rates near 80% while finished stainless imports are running well below pre-tariff levels. With domestic consumption steady, however, the balance must clear through export where bids remain soft and the leverage sits with the buyers.

For US recyclers, the second half of 2026 is therefore shaping up as a test of volume discipline rather than a price opportunity: keep material turning, keep it clean and well-sorted, and avoid speculative positions. Cautious optimism on volume is warranted through year-end while margin relief depends on factors outside recyclers’ control.