BIR World Mirror on Stainless Steel & Special Alloys – Quarterly Report October 2023: Demand mixed for stainless scrap but robust for superalloys
A concise summary of the BIR World Mirror on Stainless Steel & Special Alloys – Quarterly Report October 2023. Full version with detailed market reports available in the Members Only section of the BIR website.
The end of the second quarter marked the conclusion of a prolonged destocking period owing to the sheer volume of stainless products imported into Europe from third countries in 2022. And so with import penetration having returned to more normal levels, mills in Europe have been enjoying somewhat more breathing space for their own production, it is reported in the latest World Mirror publication released by the BIR Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee.
Although scrap demand strengthened in Europe during the third quarter, availability remained constrained owing largely to slow manufacturing activity.
Global stainless steel production is on course to register a significant year-on-year upturn in 2023, with analysts predicting an increase of some 3% to 4% backed by further expansion from China. At the same time, demand for stainless steel products within China is described as “yo-yoing” at present.
Elsewhere in Asia, Taiwanese mills’ healthy third-quarter demand for stainless steel scrap contrasted with low order levels from their counterparts in Japan. Stainless steel demand remained weak throughout the third quarter in South Korea, prompting mills to bring forward furnace maintenance programmes.
In India, the large-scale importation of semis from Indonesia during the course of this year has impacted not only demand for scrap imports but also scrap prices in the domestic market. On a positive note, data released by the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association show domestic consumption of the metal grew nearly 10% during the most recent fiscal year to reach 4 million tonnes, thus easily outperforming the global average.
Benchmark grades for US recycled stainless steel were mostly flat to lower over the course of September but support has continued to be in evidence from export channels. According to latest figures published by the US Commerce Department, more than 267,000 tonnes of recycled stainless steel was shipped out of the country in the first half of this year for an increase of 78% over the same period in 2022, driven mainly by improved demand from Mexico, India and Taiwan.
The outlook is decidedly bullish for the stainless steel market in the Middle East given healthy growth among some of the leading user sectors. For example, construction activity in the United Arab Emirates jumped almost 50% in the second quarter of 2023 despite higher raw material costs. This increase was led by the country’s residential sector (+55%) but commercial and infrastructure were also buoyant, with activity levels up by, respectively, 35% and 44%.
The depreciating nickel, flat chrome and niobium markets have been exerting downward pressure on Inconel scrap values. Meanwhile, superalloy demand remains robust and manufacturers are said to be eagerly accepting orders. However, many are operating at full capacity and are on extended lead times. The aerospace sector has encountered supply chain disruptions, with substantial delivery backlogs pointing to sustained demand for aerospace alloys in the foreseeable future.
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With contributions from its members, BIR publishes periodical commodity reports under the label "BIR World Mirror". These detailed reports exist for Non-Ferrous Metals, Ferrous, Stainless Steel / Alloys, Paper, Plastics and Latin America and provide BIR members with up-to-date information on the respective commodity or market segment.
The report on Non-Ferrous Metals appears once every two months, whereas Ferrous, Stainless Steel, Paper and Plastics are published quarterly. Latin America is covered twice per year.