BIR World Mirror on Ferrous Metals – Quarterly Report February 2025: US tariffs add another layer of uncertainty to complex market

A concise summary of the BIR World Mirror on Ferrous Metals – Quarterly Report February 2025. Full version with detailed market reports available in the Members Only section of the BIR website.

The recycling industry was still digesting the potential impacts of the USA’s 25% tariffs on steel imports as the BIR Ferrous Division released its latest World Mirror publication.

These tariffs could further impact trade dynamics and impede production of truly green steel by disrupting established international supply chains, it is contended in the Mirror. Countries that previously exported steel to the USA could seek out alternative markets, thereby affecting the availability of recycled ferrous metals in other regions. Finished steel previously earmarked for the US market could well be diverted to already-saturated markets elsewhere, thus further depressing prices and reducing production which will in turn create less demand for recycled steel and push prices lower, it is pointed out.

China’s finished steel exports soared to a nine-year high last year and flooded regional markets with lower-cost material. Data from China’s General Administration of Customs reveal that the country’s finished steel exports surged 22.7% year on year to 110.72 million tonnes. Among those affected has been India which, it is noted in the Mirror publication, is contemplating regulatory safeguards to protect its steel industry from an influx of inexpensive steel imports, particularly from China.

India’s rolled product imports reached a six-year high of 7.27 million tonnes between April and December 2024 for a 20.3% year-on-year increase whereas its recycled steel imports fell from around 11 million tonnes in 2023 to 8.44 million tonnes last year, with shipments from the USA and the UK dropping by, respectively, 29% and 45%. Factors such as rising freight costs, the Red Sea crisis and more cost-effective alternatives led to a 33% year-on-year increase in the usage of local recycled steel.

The increase in Chinese steel exports also impacted Japan where the domestic recycled steel market was reportedly weak in last year’s final quarter. According to Ministry of Finance statistics, the country’s recycled steel exports fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, sliding 5.6% to 6.54 million tonnes despite a large increase in shipments to Vietnam.

In Europe, German manufacturers of high-quality steels reduced their production in late 2024 owing to falling order backlogs while inflows of recycled steel also declined, especially new grades such as swarf. Recycled steel continues to be in tight supply across the UK market, with most operators reporting incoming supplies at low levels.

A decline in automotive sector activity in Germany impacted recycled steel markets elsewhere in Europe, including Scandinavia. On the upside, HMS 80/20 prices in Turkey made significant gains after having dipped in early January to their lowest level since May 2022.

January also brought higher prices in the US market as storms and freezing temperatures as far south as Florida and Texas drastically reduced recycled steel inflows for most of the month, with volumes down more than 40% in some instances. Having secured increases of typically US$ 20 per gross ton in January, recycled steel dealers were optimistic of a 60- to 90-day period of market strength. 

In other developments, there has been a debate in South Africa over the country’s recycled steel export tax: domestic electric steel producers are advocating its retention to ensure availability of recycled steel for local production whereas ArcelorMittal South Africa is pushing for its removal.

According to the latest update of the BIR Ferrous Division’s “World Steel Recycling in Figures” publication, China retained its position as the world’s largest user of recycled steel during the opening nine months of 2024. Consumption fell 2.1% year on year to 164.03 million tonnes although the decline in the country’s crude steel production was a more pronounced 3.6%.

When comparing the first three quarters of 2024 with the same period in 2023, recycled steel usage climbed 2.7% in the EU-27 to 58.592 million tonnes while even steeper gains were registered by India (+22.9% to 25.53 million tonnes) and Turkey (+10.5% to 23.565 million tonnes).

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With contributions from its members, BIR publishes periodical commodity reports under the label "BIR World Mirror". These detailed reports exist for Non-Ferrous Metals, Ferrous, Stainless Steel / Alloys, Paper, Plastics and Latin America and provide BIR members with up-to-date information on the respective commodity or market segment.

The report on Non-Ferrous Metals appears once every two months, whereas Ferrous, Stainless Steel, Paper and Plastics are published quarterly. Latin America is covered twice per year.