BIR World Mirror on Stainless Steel & Special Alloys – Quarterly Report February 2025: Flood of Chinese exports helps keep pressure on producer margins
A concise summary of the BIR World Mirror on Stainless Steel & Special Alloys – Quarterly Report February 2025. Full version with detailed market reports available in the Members Only section of the BIR website.
A fresh chapter in the global tale of mounting protectionism has been written with the announcement of US import tariffs on steel. These will hit those stainless producers with globalised value chains which need to import certain semi-finished products for further treatment in their US-based facilities, it is explained in the latest World Mirror publication released by the BIR Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee.
Despite a slight increase in order intakes during the early weeks of the year, Europe’s leading stainless producers are still not reaping sufficient margins on goods sold. Weak demand within the EU as well as a huge capacity overhang in Asia have heaped continuous pressure on producers’ profitability and are making it difficult to achieve any sales price increase on finished goods. At the same time, continuing imports of nickel pig iron are undermining the industry’s efforts towards a circular economy.
A drop-off in industrial production during the early weeks of 2025 has further undermined the supply of stainless steel scrap. The only reason prices have not soared on the back of this scarcity is because European mills have not been frantic in their search for scrap, it is contended.
Despite recent stimulus measures, China is continuing to overproduce and to flood the Asian market with stainless steel end products as their mills bid to compensate for small profit margins. Meanwhile, South Korea’s stainless steel scrap demand was stable in last year’s fourth quarter but will be very weak in the first quarter of 2025 owing to furnace maintenance.
The Indian rupee’s sharp depreciation against the US dollar over recent weeks has prompted mill concerns over the rising cost of scrap imports, with many still opting to import semi-finished products on the grounds of greater viability. At present, stainless mills are facing a decline not only in new orders but also in prices for finished products.
India aims to expand its stainless steel production capacity to 9.5 million tonnes by 2030 and to 19-20 million tonnes by 2047, according to the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association. The country’s per-capita consumption of stainless steel is forecast to surge from its current average of 2.5 kg per year to 9-9.5 kg by 2030, 12.5-12.7 kg by 2040 and 19-20 kg by 2047.
At present, the superalloy market is slower than anticipated. Superalloy manufacturers have good order books, although Boeing did make some pushbacks on delivery and the ripple effect is being seen. Titanium is expected to remain fairly weak until the third or fourth quarter of 2025.
Nickel market weakness, meanwhile, is being attributed to: an under-pressure stainless steel sector; slower-than-anticipated electric vehicle sales; and China’s slow and uneven economic recovery. Looking ahead, nickel is expected to remain in a global surplus for the foreseeable future unless Indonesia enforces meaningful supply cuts.
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With contributions from its members, BIR publishes periodical commodity reports under the label "BIR World Mirror". These detailed reports exist for Non-Ferrous Metals, Ferrous, Stainless Steel / Alloys, Paper, Plastics and Latin America and provide BIR members with up-to-date information on the respective commodity or market segment.
The report on Non-Ferrous Metals appears once every two months, whereas Ferrous, Stainless Steel, Paper and Plastics are published quarterly. Latin America is covered twice per year.