BIR World Mirror on Ferrous Metals – Quarterly Report May 2025: Demand remains the true driver of price movements
A concise summary of the BIR World Mirror on Ferrous Metals – Quarterly Report May 2025. Full version with detailed market reports available in the Members Only section of the BIR website.
Tariff activity triggered by America’s new administration has disrupted traditional recycled steel trade flows and added cost pressures. But as argued in the latest World Mirror publication produced by BIR’s Ferrous Division, it is demand that remains the motive force behind price movements.
To date, demand has shown resilience in certain countries where domestic consumption has increased or imports have been redirected to alternative suppliers, it is explained. However, significant slowdowns have occurred elsewhere as manufacturing output has faltered and steel production levels have adjusted to political uncertainty and shifting market fundamentals.
Starting in the USA itself, recycled steel dealers were experiencing substantially increased flows at the start of this year’s second quarter on the back of improved weather conditions and higher prices. But by late April, the strain of tariffs became more apparent; notably, dealers in the southern US who are dependent on Mexico’s recycled steel purchases saw this market virtually disappear overnight because tariffs drastically weakened Mexican consumer demand, prompting that tonnage to saturate a US market already witnessing higher flows. Grades like P&S were particularly hard hit as large volumes became available overnight, competing with existing flows and pushing prices lower.
Most US dealers have agreed to lower recycled steel prices in May as mills take advantage of weak exports, adequate supplies and a weakening US economy.
In the UK, material inflows to yards remain inconsistent, with most businesses - and particularly shredders - operating well below capacity. Margin pressures have prompted many to stockpile in the hope of an easing of uncertainty and a recovery in prices.
Prices in the Turkish market fell dramatically in April, thus improving the commercial argument in favour of containerised shipments from Europe to India and Pakistan, supported by falling freight rates. In general, Asia’s recycled steel market remains under pressure as Chinese steel exports surged in January-March 2025 to 27.43 million tonnes - their highest quarterly total since 2016.
Taiwan’s steelmakers have continued to favour billet, pig iron and domestic recycled steel to offset weaker mill order books, resulting in a significant year-on-year drop in recycled steel imports during the first quarter of 2025. Russian billet continues to weigh on recycled steel demand in South East Asia as low-cost offers remain attractive to price-sensitive mills.
The recycled steel market in Japan has been weak since mid-April amid growing concerns of a global economic slowdown. In addition, the combination of a weak US dollar and strong yen is making export negotiations difficult, thus softening the domestic market price.
Recycled steel usage in the seven key countries and regions covered by the BIR Ferrous Division’s latest “World Steel Recycling in Figures” publication edged 1% lower in 2024 to 460.607 million tonnes. This compares with a year-on-year decrease in their total crude steel production of 0.7% to 1548.1 million tonnes, according to the latest update from divisional Statistics Advisor Rolf Willeke.
Latest shares of recycled steel usage in crude steel production have been calculated at 20.9% for China, 23% for India, 35.4% for South Korea, 36.7% for Japan, 59.2% for the EU-27 and 69.2% for the USA, as well as a particularly impressive 84.8% for Turkey where consumption jumped 7.5% last year to 31.273 million tonnes. Turkey increased its overseas recycled steel purchases to 20.095 million tonnes in 2024, thus reinforcing its long-held position as the world’s foremost importer of recycled steel, with India in second place (-23% year on year to 8.46 million tonnes) and Vietnam third with an almost unchanged total of 5.327 million tonnes.
The EU-27 maintained its position as the world’s leading recycled steel exporter in 2024 despite an 11.4% decline to 17.024 million tonnes.
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With contributions from its members, BIR publishes periodical commodity reports under the label "BIR World Mirror". These detailed reports exist for Non-Ferrous Metals, Ferrous, Stainless Steel / Alloys, Paper, Plastics and Latin America and provide BIR members with up-to-date information on the respective commodity or market segment.
The report on Non-Ferrous Metals appears once every two months, whereas Ferrous, Stainless Steel, Paper and Plastics are published quarterly. Latin America is covered twice per year.