BIR World Mirror on Stainless Steel & Special Alloys – Issue May 2025: More positive market vibes dashed by tariffs

A concise summary of the BIR World Mirror on Stainless Steel & Special Alloys – Quarterly Report February 2025. Full version with detailed market reports available in the Members Only section of the BIR website.

Following an increase in order intakes among leading European stainless steel flat producers and a continuous improvement in the business outlook, the more positive market vibes were swiftly extinguished by US tariffs as related uncertainties hampered decision-making processes, it is reported in the latest World Mirror publication released by the BIR Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee.

One of the consequences has been a drop in demand and prices not only for stainless steel but also for its key ingredients such as stainless scrap. Financial results published recently by some of Europe’s stainless steel producers indicate that margins are under pressure while challenges continue to face overall financial performance. The lack of strength in European domestic demand is pushing mills to lower prices in a bid to steal customers from each other, it is claimed.

There is said to be little prospect of an imminent turnaround in fortunes given the approach of the traditionally quieter summer period in the northern hemisphere, it is contended.

Ever since tariff discussion began, the Indian market has seen a precipitous drop in demand for imported stainless steel scrap, with many mills preferring domestic supplies because of price and the availability of credit terms. In the 12-month period from April 2023 to March 2024, India’s imports of 300 series scrap declined by 4% year on year to 900,000 tonnes while the respective declines for the 304 and 316 grades were 6% and 19%. Meanwhile, the country’s Zurik imports recorded an increase of 4%.

Stainless steel scrap supply has become tighter in Malaysia and Indonesia as many factories have reduced production owing to poor market conditions. Even generation of revert scrap has fallen because of tariff concerns.

In the first quarter of 2025, Taiwanese mills offered weak demand for stainless steel scrap, with hot coils and nickel pig iron remaining competitive while traditional consuming sectors continued to offer low demand. Meanwhile, South Korea’s stainless steel scrap demand has been stable in April and May but is likely to weaken in June owing to scheduled furnace maintenance at a major mill.

In China, stainless mills are continuing to increase production, adding to the oversupply situation.

The stainless steel market in the Middle East is expected to experience a combination of rising prices and robust demand growth in 2025. Price increases are being driven by raw material inflation, supply chain disruption and soaring energy costs, as well as by strong activity levels in, particularly, the construction, infrastructure and automotive sectors.

Stainless steel remains the largest end-use sector for nickel, the market for which

has been shaped in recent months by a combination of oversupply, shifting South East Asian policies and escalating trade tensions. While early March offered price optimism, the April tariff shock led to a steep price correction and exposed deeper weaknesses in global nickel demand. With supply still high and demand vulnerable to macro-economic and geopolitical headwinds, nickel prices are believed likely to remain under pressure and volatile in the months ahead if there is no substantial supply-side restraint or policy-driven demand recovery.

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With contributions from its members, BIR publishes periodical commodity reports under the label "BIR World Mirror". These detailed reports exist for Non-Ferrous Metals, Ferrous, Stainless Steel / Alloys, Paper, Plastics and Latin America and provide BIR members with up-to-date information on the respective commodity or market segment.

The report on Non-Ferrous Metals appears once every two months, whereas Ferrous, Stainless Steel, Paper and Plastics are published quarterly. Latin America is covered twice per year.