BIR World Mirror on Ferrous Metals – Quarterly Report October 2025: Rare moments of stability in an otherwise pressure-filled market
A concise summary of the BIR World Mirror on Ferrous Metals – Quarterly Report October 2025. Full version with detailed market reports available in the Members Only section of the BIR website.
US recycled steel prices set a record in this year’s high summer period - but not for any notable highs or lows. In a truly rare event, there was no change in the market and deals were closed in double-quick time amid a balance between supply and demand as well as still-decent mill order books. However, the picture has altered substantially in more recent weeks as a slowing economy and worried consumers have dented new steel sales, it is reported in the latest World Mirror publication produced by BIR’s Ferrous Division.
Hot rolled coil prices of close to US$ 900 per ton have been replaced by sales at below US$ 800, prompting price cuts on the key busheling grade in September. The more negative sentiment has persisted into October, with mills looking to regain some margin at the expense of recycled steel supplies.
Weak order volumes in Germany, particularly from the construction industry, have dampened mill capacity utilisation numbers for much of the year, thereby negatively impacting demand for recycled steel for which prices fell again after a brief period of stability in August. Across into Scandinavia, a drop in recycled steel prices has meant that lower volumes are becoming available. And feedback from the UK indicates that pressure is continuing to be seen on volumes into shredder operations.
The seaborne recycled steel market in Asia remains under pressure owing to persistently high Chinese steel exports which climbed 10% year on year in the first eight months of 2025 to 77.49 million tonnes. The Chinese authorities have developed plans to cut inefficient capacity but implementation has been uneven.
South Korea’s steel industry faces mounting challenges amid escalating US tariffs and ongoing domestic demand weakness. In response, the government has introduced a new export guarantee programme valued at approximately US$ 290 million to support steel exporters and stabilise the sector.
India’s steel imports have declined owing to safeguard duties and other regulatory measures aimed at reinforcing domestic production. Meanwhile, Bangladesh has maintained steady demand for imported recycled steel; mills continue to shift sourcing strategies, with many of the country’s recent export tenders sourced from Japan. In Japan itself, the domestic market for recycled steel has remained largely flat and domestic generation has stagnated on a decrease in, notably, construction and demolition projects.
The combination of the Price Preference System and export duties is continuing to distort the market in South Africa. This is benefitting mini-mills while undermining collectors, recyclers and downstream industries, it is argued. And in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s recycled steel market remains firm on tight availability and steady mill demand. Meanwhile, the UAE’s recycled steel export duty of 400 dirham per tonne remains in place, restricting exports and prioritising domestic sales.
Recycled steel usage headed lower in China, the EU-27, the USA, Japan and South Korea in the first half of 2025 whereas increases were registered in India and Turkey, it is reported in the latest World Steel Recycling in Figures update from the BIR Ferrous Division’s Statistics Advisor Rolf Willeke.
In the first six months of 2025, China’s crude steel production fell 3% year on year to 514.8 million tonnes but its recycled steel usage tumbled a significantly steeper 11.4% to 109.01 million tonnes. In the plus column, India reported a 15.3% leap in its recycled steel usage in this year’s January-June period to 19.65 million tonnes compared to a 9.2% gain in its crude steel production. Meanwhile, Turkey increased its recycled steel usage by 2.2% to 16.051 million tonnes despite a 1.7% steel production dip.
Turkey remained the world leader in overseas recycled steel purchases despite a 5.8% year-on-year reduction in the first half of 2025 to 9.404 million tonnes, while India remained in second place with an 18% surge to 4.580 million tonnes. The EU-27 maintained its position as the world’s leading recycled steel exporter in the first half of 2025 despite a decrease of 2.8% to 8.304 million tonnes.
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With contributions from its members, BIR publishes periodical commodity reports under the label "BIR World Mirror". These detailed reports exist for Non-Ferrous Metals, Ferrous, Stainless Steel / Alloys, Paper, Plastics and Latin America and provide BIR members with up-to-date information on the respective commodity or market segment.
The report on Non-Ferrous Metals appears once every two months, whereas Ferrous, Stainless Steel, Paper and Plastics are published quarterly. Latin America is covered twice per year.