BIR World Mirror on Ferrous Metals – Quarterly Report May 2026: Turkish mills end restraint with deep-sea cargo buying spree

A concise summary of the BIR World Mirror on Ferrous Metals – Quarterly Report May 2026. Full version with detailed market reports available in the Members Only section of the BIR website.

Turkey’s role as a bellwether for ferrous markets was amply demonstrated in the early months of the year, it is noted in the latest World Mirror publication produced by BIR’s Ferrous Division.

After a period of cautious restraint following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, Turkish mills made an aggressive foray into the market and booked more than 30 deep-sea cargoes in the space of just three days in late March. Deep-sea recycled steel prices duly surged more than US$ 25 per tonne when compared to the January average.

The Middle East conflict was not the only major factor to affect the market in the opening months of 2026. The Central Bank of Turkey maintained its restrictive monetary policy stance throughout the first quarter, thereby moderating domestic steel demand and undermining mills’ ability to finance large recycled steel procurement positions. This is said to have shaped the cautious-then-aggressive buying pattern observed in March.

Meanwhile, recycled steel import figures for January signalled a shift in sourcing as US-origin supplies surged more than 140% whereas volumes from leading European suppliers suffered double-digit declines.

For the USA, higher recycled steel export prices are now close to being on a par with levels at home, thus supporting American recycled steel prices as domestic mills compete for the same material wanted by Turkey and Asia.

The European steel market saw significant price rises in the first quarter of 2026, particularly in the hot-rolled coil and reinforcing steel markets, driven mainly by supply shortages, import restrictions and rising costs. As noted in feedback from both Germany and Scandinavia, underlying demand continues to be weak and uneven. Amid rising logistical costs, there have been significant increases in recycled steel pricing to traditional markets. From the UK, it is noted that competition for material remains strong, particularly for shredder feed.

The consistent upward trajectory in recycled steel import prices has made such trading commercially unviable for many Indian buyers, particularly in a weak demand environment. Incoming volumes declined from 0.43 million tonnes in January to 0.35 million tonnes in February and then to around 0.25-0.30 million tonnes in March. The UK, Bahrain, the USA and Brazil were the main suppliers. Domestic recycled steel consumption declined from 3.4 million tonnes in January to 3.3 million tonnes in February and then 3 million tonnes in March, reflecting slower construction activity.

Bangladesh’s recycled steel imports started 2026 on a weaker note, with volumes down around 25% year on year in the first quarter as mills reduced buying activity. Purchasing has been more cautious amid higher energy costs, freight uncertainty and tighter import financing conditions.

The recycled steel market in Japan, meanwhile, continued its upward trend from late February, with a recovery in domestic demand, high export figures and a weaker yen contributing to this robust market performance.

Elsewhere in Asia, China’s crude steel production is expected to decline modestly in 2026, although persistent structural oversupply is continuing to pressurise mills into relying on export markets to balance excess output. And in Taiwan, recycled steel imports declined roughly 30% year over year in the first quarter.

There has been a notable shift among Gulf Cooperation Council mills from imported billet- to recycled steel-based production. At the same time, a state-coordinated recycled steel import allocation mechanism is being deployed in Saudi Arabia to mitigate feedstock constraints and stabilise mill operations.

Latest indications suggest the South African government is unlikely to fully liberalise recycled steel exports any time soon as the policy bias remains towards retaining it for domestic industrial use. Recent commentary from the International Trade Administration Commission’s leadership reinforces that recycled steel is viewed as a strategic material because of its role in lower-carbon steelmaking. Against this backdrop, weak downstream demand is limiting mills’ appetite for recycled steel, keeping local HMS pricing under pressure despite regulatory controls.

The latest edition of the BIR Ferrous Division’s “World Steel Recycling in Figures” reveals that recycled steel usage in the key countries and regions covered by the publication was 4.5% higher last year at 480.268 million tonnes whereas their combined crude steel production fell 2.2% to 1514.7 million tonnes. Turkey remained the leading importer of recycled steel in 2025 despite a 6.6% decline in overseas purchases to 18.768 million tonnes, with second-placed India seeing a 5% drop in imports to 8.04 million tonnes.

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With contributions from its members, BIR publishes periodical commodity reports under the label "BIR World Mirror". These detailed reports exist for Non-Ferrous Metals, Ferrous, Stainless Steel / Alloys, Paper, Plastics and Latin America and provide BIR members with up-to-date information on the respective commodity or market segment.

The report on Non-Ferrous Metals appears once every two months, whereas Ferrous, Stainless Steel, Paper and Plastics are published quarterly. Latin America is covered twice per year.