All was to change, however, with its government’s announcement that imports of “solid waste” – a sweeping category that unfortunately captured our own raw materials – would be banned with effect from December 31 2020. 

Last year, China approved import quotas for 882,697 tons of copper scrap and 821,519 tons of aluminium scrap. In 2017, by comparison, China’s copper scrap imports had amounted to 3.56 million tons or 64% of its supply, while its overseas purchases of aluminium scrap were close to 2.2 million tons. 

The step-by-step, quota-based reduction in imports over two to three years provided our industry with valuable time to explore alternatives. Also, it gave an opportunity to organizations like BIR and particularly our member association in China, the CMRA, to maintain a dialogue with government officials and seek outcomes that would enable scrap metals to reach China’s still-hungry consumers.

Last year, thankfully, brought good news. The Chinese authorities announced a reclassification permitting the importation of materials for recycling if they met certain specified standards. Copper, brass and cast aluminium alloys have provided the template for this new system. 

The reclassification process confirms China’s ongoing requirement for secondary raw material imports to supplement domestically-generated metal units. In addition, it shows China’s eagerness to promote its own recycling industry, for which the country’s latest Five-Year Plan for 2021 to 2025 specifically targets steady growth and increased efficiency. And on a positive note for traders around the world, the Plan also makes clear China’s desire to continue to strengthen co-operation with foreign countries, enterprises and international industry associations.

Overlaying developments in China and all other key events for our sector last year was, of course, the COVID pandemic. Even though recycling was rightly designated an essential, strategic industry in many parts of the world, our day-to-day activities were still turned upside down by the rapid spread of the virus and the response measures put in place. Lockdowns of varying levels of severity downshifted world economies into first gear and made business life even more challenging than before.

As we heard at the BIR Non-Ferrous Metals Division’s eForum in June, more than 40 million US citizens had lost their jobs in just 10 weeks. Unemployment rates in some countries soared as high as 25% and, unfortunately, many of our own companies were forced to take the painful decision to lay off valued members of their workforce. Another impact of the lockdowns was to stem the flow of material into yards; for example, estimates of metal scrap availability in May were just 50% of the norm for Italy and Spain. And in India, the suspension of normal life meant that, for the first time ever, zero automotive sales were recorded in April.
But even at that June eForum, the resilience of human activity was already beginning to show through. Our guest speaker Eugen Weinberg of Commerzbank pointed to the recent spike in China’s business activity index while demand for scrap in Asia was showing distinct signs of recovery. By the time of our webinar in October, we learned that Asia’s recyclers were operating at quite high production levels because of particularly strong demand from China. Astonishingly, given the effects of COVID, it was suggested that the Chinese economy would still record growth in 2020. In India too, the secondary non-ferrous metals sector had rebounded despite ongoing concerns over COVID infection rates. 

To date, the business resurgence in Asia – especially South East Asia, India and Pakistan – has provided the main spark for a rally in the non-ferrous metals markets, led by copper whose LME cash price had fallen close to US$ 4600 per tonne by late March but ended 2020 at upwards of US$ 8000. With a number of highly-effective vaccines now emerging and with vaccination programmes receiving priority status in many countries, we have some justification for hoping that the recovery will spread far wider in 2021 and that this year will be far brighter than its predecessor.